How to deal with the growing wolf population in Switzerland?

The newspaper NZZ am Sonntag recently published an interview with our in-house predator specialist and movement ecology group leader Gabriele Cozzi about the current wolf situation in Switzerland and the associated research opportunities. The interview was conducted by Atlant Bieri and originally published in german. Below, we provide an english translation.

 

NZZ am Sonntag: Mr Cozzi, this summer a shepherdess and her dog were growled at by a wolf in Graubünden. There have also been more encounters between humans and wolves elsewhere recently. How dangerous is that?

Gabriele Cozzi: In such an encounter, a wolf possibly growls because it is frightened and thus signals its presence. In its language, this means: “Don’t come near me!” If you follow this signal, nothing can happen. In this situation, a wolf would only attack if it feels attacked and sees no escape options. But that hardly ever happens, you almost have to step on its tail.

 

As a defence, the woman called loudly and made herself appear as big as possible. The wolf then left. Does that always work?

She reacted correctly and used the language of the wolf. A loud voice is equivalent to growling. It means: “I am strong and could be a problem for you. You better leave me alone.” The louder you are, the more dangerous you appear to the wolf. For him, this means he could hurt himself unnecessarily if he attacks.

 

Is it also useful to stand up?

Yes, body size is important. In wolf language, it is synonymous with strength. That’s why you should not crouch or bend down to pick up stones as a weapon. It is better to move your hands above your head or to break branches from trees and waving them. But one should not directly attack the wolf. He might think that it is now too late to flee, and he must fight back.

 

Why is running away not a good idea?

It activates a hunting instinct in the wolf: the image of a fleeing prey. This can be observed very well in cats. A mouse dummy that does not move is ignored. Only when you let it slide across the floor does the cat’s hunting instinct kick in and it strikes. It’s the same with wolves. If I run away, I am the prey. In an encounter, the following message must always reach the wolf: a person is something big that is potentially strong and dangerous. Full stop. Then nothing will happen. You can walk slowly backwards, but always keep your eyes on the wolf without staring.

 

Why not?

Staring signals a challenge: whoever averts their gaze first submits. In an encounter, one should neither enter a competition nor be submissive, but rather remain calm and show self-confidence.

 

On another day, the same woman was surprised by three wolves at once. This time the animals attacked the woman’s dog. Why do wolves behave so aggressively towards dogs?

Wolves see dogs as nothing more than another wolf, but a wolf that is degenerate and weak. Moreover, he is an intruder in their territory. That is why dogs rather than their owners are attacked.

 

Sometimes, however, this also means that the dog is killed.

Yes, that can happen. Large predators are not squeamish about direct competition for food. It also happens that wolves kill other wolves. In Africa, lions kill hyenas without eating them afterwards. It is simply a matter of eliminating the competition. Basically, predators don’t like other predators.

 

In August, a group of hikers in Sufers came across two adult wolves that approached within a few metres. Later, the pups also followed the hikers. Why the approach and the subsequent pursuit?

In Africa, zebras are often seen walking directly towards a pride of lions. That means: “I see you and know what you’re doing.” It’s the same with wolves. Especially with parents, they may scout us to find out if we are a danger to the offspring.

With puppies it’s different. For them, everything is a game. They go after anything that moves. I have seen young African wild dogs chasing giraffes. This can be very dangerous for the young dogs, but they need to make experiences to understand it.

 

In North America, the authorities advise hiking tourists to always carry bear spray (pepper spray) with them. Would that also be conceivable in Switzerland?

Absolutely. It works very well in North America. All it takes there is a short blast and the wolf would takes off. Nobody likes to have pepper spray in their face. Using bear spray would only require a small change in our way of thinking. But maybe there is still some resistance at the moment.

 

Wolves seem to appear in settlements for no reason. Why?

You have to distinguish between migrating individuals and resident packs. Migrating individuals travel long distances every day and don’t really know where they are going. They don’t want to go to the city for sure. But in the densely populated landscapes, they only have to turn left once instead of right and they’re already in a village.

Packs, on the other hand, know their territories very well, and if they find something to eat near settlements, they are very likely to come back. This was a problem in Vättis, for example, where the Calanda pack often appeared. There, meat bait had been put out for fox hunting. The wolves quickly learned that they could easily get food here.

 

What does that mean for settlements?

Don’t leave food lying around. This can quickly lead to problems and unwanted encounters. In Turkey, where I researched bears and wolves, there is a town with a big rubbish dump. Bears and wolves come there every night to feed. It’s like a McDonald’s for them.

 

If wolves approach a settlement too often, they are declared problem wolves and can be shot. Would there be an alternative to this?

You can scare the animals away with rubber shot. But such measures, where the animals have to learn something, always take time. It is clear that this method would be very time-consuming for the gamekeepers and therefore not justifiable everywhere. Ultrasound could be used, similar to a cat or marten deterrent. In recent years, attempts have also been made to restrict the movements of predators by placing urine and droppings of conspecifics in strategic locations. We have to learn to be creative here.

 

Farmers in mountain areas have the same problem. They want to keep the wolf out of their pastures. Would there be more possibilities than fences and guard dogs?

We should try to exploit the technological possibilities. GPS transmitters, for example, could help to record the movements and preferred locations of resident packs. In the alpine region, packs have territories of about two hundred square kilometres. But certain locations are only heavily used during certain times of the year, such as the breeding season. The more information we have, the easier it will be to develop preventive measures.

 

There are currently about a hundred wolves in Switzerland, and the population is growing. Will more farm animals be killed every year?

The number of farm animals killed will probably increase. That is pure mathematics. But the number will not necessarily increase linearly: twice as many wolves does not necessarily mean twice as many lost farm animals. This because in Switzerland there are many wild animals such as deer, roe deer, chamois and wild boar, which play a much bigger role as prey than our sheep and goats.

 

But last year even a donkey was killed by wolves. Isn’t the situation deteriorating?

We should not condemn the wolf because of a donkey. At the end of the day, donkeys are part of its possible prey spectrum. It is important to maintain a rational mindset and take decisions based on facts and not emotions. Only in this way will the relationship between humans and wolves be sustainable.

Where can the wild things roam? Combining ecological suitability and human acceptance for the Swiss wolf.

About one third of the Swiss landscape offers suitable wolf habitat. Nonetheless, there is only a small fraction thereof where the wolf is tolerated by local communities. Those regions – characterized by both favourable environmental conditions and a positive attitude towards the wolf – are identified as candidate regions for the successful short to medium-term wolf expansion, according to a study conducted by the population ecology research group at the University of Zurich

©RamiroMarquezPhotos / iStock

The wolf was eradicated in Switzerland and from large parts of continental Europe including France and Germany by the end of the 19th century. Following legal protection, the wolf population started naturally increasing and expanding, and in 1995 its presence was confirmed in Switzerland. Sightings have increased since. Despite 13’800 km2 of Switzerland are characterized by favourable conditions such as large forests with little human pressure and have thus been identified as suitable wolf habitat, wolf expansion in Switzerland has been substantially slower than in other parts of continental Europe. As the wolf is more and more subject to human-dominated landscapes, scientist at the University of Zurich developed a novel method that integrated both ecological and human components to identify regions with favourable environmental conditions and where the wolf was tolerated.

Mapping human acceptance of the wolf to identify suitable socio-ecological areas

socio-ecological suitability model
Combining human acceptance (a, c) and habitat suitability (b, d)
helps identifying socio-ecologically suitable wolf habitats in Switzerland (e).

About one third of 10,000 randomly selected residents in Switzerland participated in the survey. Combining the response from questionnaires with geographical information, Dominik Behr and his team created a nationwide map of human acceptance. Acceptance decreased with increasing altitude of residency and even more so where high numbers of sheep and goats were held. Acceptance increased with increasing distance from confirmed wolf presence and in densely populated areas. People who perceived the wolf as dangerous to humans and harmful to livestock and wildlife mainly opposed the wolf. Younger people, and people who believe that the wolf had a positive influence on the ecosystem had a more positive attitude towards the predator.

“When we overlapped our human acceptance map with a habitat suitability map for the wolf, we realized that only about 6% of Switzerland was characterized by both a positive attitude and favourable environment conditions. This was in contrast to results from the habitat suitability map, which returned one third of the Swiss landscape as being suitable for the wolf” said Dominik Behr. “As wildlife biologists, we are good at understanding the ecological factors determining the suitability of a habitat for a wildlife species. Due to ever-increasing overlap between human and wildlife, however, we are obliged to take into consideration how human acceptance modifies our ecological description of habitat suitability. This study demonstrates one effective way to do this.” stressed Arpat Ozgul, professor of population ecology at the Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies at the University of Zurich, and co-author of the study.

A novel framework to manage wolves and people
The socio-ecological map created by Dominik Behr and his co-authors appears to accurately represent the wolf situation in Switzerland of the past years, including identifications of areas of high, moderate or limited conflict. “By capturing areas characterized by both favourable environmental conditions and a positive acceptance towards the wolf, our approach is a valuable tool to identify overall socio-ecological suitable areas for the wolf. Under given conditions, those regions are good candidates for the successful short to medium-term expansion of the wolf. Additionally, this approach allows to identify key regions where proactive and targeted socio-ecological management plans and a constructive dialog among different stakeholders are needed” said Dr. Gabriele Cozzi, who coordinated the study.

Special thanks go to the 3142 people that returned the completed questionnaire – this study would not have been possible without their contribution.

Behr DM, Ozgul A, Cozzi G (2017) Combining human attitude and habitat suitability: a unified socio-ecological suitability model for the wolf in Switzerland. Journal of Applied Ecology

Popecol group started to form postwomen and postmen

Do Swiss people support or oppose wild living wolves in Switzerland? Do wolves encounter a positive “human environment” in areas with suitable habitat conditions? To answer these questions, Gabriele and I are conducting a mail survey among a random sample of the Swiss population. In order to master the logistics of mailing out 10’000 questionnaires, the Popecol group jumped in with many supporting hands.

Questionnaire about people's attitude towards the wolf in Switzerland
Questionnaire about people’s attitude towards the wolf in Switzerland

A questionnaire with sections on attitude, perception and knowledge of the wolf, experience with the wolf and personal information about the respondent was developed and translated into German, French and Italian. Before going big and mailing out 10’000 questionnaires, a pre-study with 200 randomly chosen people was conducted. So far the pre-study yielded a return rate of almost 30%, which is higher than expected. With this first promising outcome in mind the time was ripe for undertaking the logistics of printing, folding and packing 10’000 questionnaires.

With great support of the Popecol group, the first packing round successfully went off without a hitch. In groups of two helpers, the questionnaires were packed in envelopes together with a cover letter and a return envelope. So far, the first 4’000 questionnaires are on the way to be delivered to the randomly chosen respondents all over Switzerland. The last packing round is scheduled and the remaining questionnaires are planned to be sent out soon.

Envelope packing procedure performed by the Population Ecology group
Envelope packing procedure performed by the Population Ecology group

Thanks again for the great support and let’s keep our fingers crossed for a high return rate!

Dr. Dominik Behr | Postdoc

I am an ecologist interested in exploring how predictions of animal populations can be improved by accounting for dispersal processes, species interactions, and environmental change. My motivation lies in developing reliable population forecasts, enabling the assessment of extinction risks for endangered species under various scenarios. By identifying key factors that drive these dynamics and exploring different intervention strategies, I aim to support effective wildlife management and conservation practices.

In my research career, I have acquired in-depth knowledge in dispersal and movement ecology, specifically examining how these factors influence the demography and spatial connectivity of individual populations. My primary focus has been on the African wild dog, through which I have gained valuable skills in demographic analyses, individual-based modeling, and mark-recapture analyses. More recently, my work has expanded to other species including meerkats in South Africa, giraffes in Tanzania, mouse lemurs in Madagascar, and both roe deer and wolves in Switzerland. With an interdisciplinary background in ecology and engineering, I strive to combine my understanding of ecological systems with quantitative modeling to support the long-term persistence of wildlife populations.

Research interests

Population ecology, movement ecology, conservation biology, population viability analysis, mark-recapture analysis, Bayesian statistics, decision science

Research profiles

Google ScholarResearchGateORCiD

Current research projects

Curriculum vitae

  • 2021–present, Postdoctoral scientist | Population Ecology Research Group, University of Zurich
  • 2014–present, Tour guide | Zoo Zurich
  • 2016–2021, PhD in ecology | Population Ecology Research Group, University of Zurich in collaboration with Botswana Predator Conservation (Maun, Botswana)
  • 2014–2015, MSc in Environmental Sciences | University of Zurich
  • 2014, Nature field guide qualification | Field Guide Association of Southern Africa (Limpopo, South Africa)
  • 2010–2013, Operations project manager | ABB Ltd. Automation Company (Switzerland & China)
  • 2008–2009, Various internships as an operations engineer in the private sector (USA & Switzerland)
  • 2006–2009, MSc in Management, Technology and Economics | Swiss Federal Institute of Technology (ETH) Zurich
  • 2005–2006, Research assistant & teaching assistant | Institute of Environmental Engineering, ETH Zurich
  • 2003–2006, BSc in Environmental Engineering | ETH Zurich

Publications

  • Hofmann DD, Behr DM, McNutt JW, Ozgul A, Cozzi G (2024) Dispersal and connectivity in increasingly extreme climatic conditions. Global Change Biology
  • Cozzi G, Reilly M, Abegg D, Behr DM, … McNutt JW (2023) An AI-based platform to investigate African large carnivore dispersal and demography across broad landscapes: A case study and future directions using African wild dogs. African Journal of Ecology
  • Behr DM, Hodel FH, Cozzi G, McNutt JW, Ozgul A (2023) Higher mortality is not a universal cost of dispersal: a case study in African wild dogs. American Naturalist
  • Tucker MA, Schipper AM, … Behr DM, … Cozzi G, … Mueller T (2023) Behavioral responses of terrestrial mammals to COVID-19 lockdowns. Science
  • Hofmann DD, Cozzi G, McNutt JW, Ozgul A, Behr DM (2023) A three-step approach for assessing landscape connectivity via simulated dispersal: African wild dog case study. Landscape Ecology
  • Hodel F*, Behr DM*, Cozzi G, Ozgul A (2023) A hierarchical approach for estimating state-specific mortality and state transition in dispersing animals with incomplete death records. Methods in Ecology and Evolution
  • Jordan NR, Golabek KA, Behr DM, … , McNutt JW (2022) Priority of access to food and its influence on social dynamics of an endangered carnivore. Behavioral Ecology and Sociobiology
  • Hofmann DD*, Behr DM*, McNutt JW, Ozgul A, Cozzi G (2021) Bound within boundaries: Do protected areas cover movement corridors of their most mobile, protected species? Journal of Applied Ecology
  • Behr DM, McNutt JW, Ozgul A, Cozzi G (2020) When to stay and when to leave? Proximate causes of dispersal in an endangered social carnivore. Journal of Animal Ecology 
  • Cozzi G, Behr DM, Webster H, Claase M, Bryce CM, Modise B, McNutt JW, Ozgul A (2020) African wild dog dispersal and implications for management. Journal of Wildlife Management 
  • Behr DM, Ozgul A, Cozzi G (2017) Combining human acceptance and habitat suitability in a unified socio-ecological suitability model: a case study for the wolf in Switzerland. Journal of Applied Ecology 

*shared first authorship