Predicting population dynamics accurately requires considering environmental and demographic aspects, such as the spatiotemporal pattern of environmental change, reaction norms of life-history rates to this change, covariation among life-history rates, and density feedback on these rates. Studies on spatially structured populations (metapopulations) usually ignore this complexity.
In this project, we build a metapopulation model that can accommodate the four demographic aspects. By simulating different life-history strategies and alternately excluding aspects from the model, we generate hypotheses on how each aspect affects population projections under environmental change. Then, we test the hypotheses on data from natural and experimental populations.
The current state of knowledge on environment–demography relationships (green arrows), expanded by four demographic aspects (red boxes).
About one third of the Swiss landscape offers suitable wolf habitat. Nonetheless, there is only a small fraction thereof where the wolf is tolerated by local communities. Those regions – characterized by both favourable environmental conditions and a positive attitude towards the wolf – are identified as candidate regions for the successful short to medium-term wolf expansion, according to a study conducted by the population ecology research group at the University of Zurich
The wolf was eradicated in Switzerland and from large parts of continental Europe including France and Germany by the end of the 19th century. Following legal protection, the wolf population started naturally increasing and expanding, and in 1995 its presence was confirmed in Switzerland. Sightings have increased since. Despite 13’800 km2 of Switzerland are characterized by favourable conditions such as large forests with little human pressure and have thus been identified as suitable wolf habitat, wolf expansion in Switzerland has been substantially slower than in other parts of continental Europe. As the wolf is more and more subject to human-dominated landscapes, scientist at the University of Zurich developed a novel method that integrated both ecological and human components to identify regions with favourable environmental conditions and where the wolf was tolerated.
Mapping human acceptance of the wolf to identify suitable socio-ecological areas
Combining human acceptance (a, c) and habitat suitability (b, d) helps identifying socio-ecologically suitable wolf habitats in Switzerland (e).
About one third of 10,000 randomly selected residents in Switzerland participated in the survey. Combining the response from questionnaires with geographical information, Dominik Behr and his team created a nationwide map of human acceptance. Acceptance decreased with increasing altitude of residency and even more so where high numbers of sheep and goats were held. Acceptance increased with increasing distance from confirmed wolf presence and in densely populated areas. People who perceived the wolf as dangerous to humans and harmful to livestock and wildlife mainly opposed the wolf. Younger people, and people who believe that the wolf had a positive influence on the ecosystem had a more positive attitude towards the predator.
“When we overlapped our human acceptance map with a habitat suitability map for the wolf, we realized that only about 6% of Switzerland was characterized by both a positive attitude and favourable environment conditions. This was in contrast to results from the habitat suitability map, which returned one third of the Swiss landscape as being suitable for the wolf” said Dominik Behr. “As wildlife biologists, we are good at understanding the ecological factors determining the suitability of a habitat for a wildlife species. Due to ever-increasing overlap between human and wildlife, however, we are obliged to take into consideration how human acceptance modifies our ecological description of habitat suitability. This study demonstrates one effective way to do this.” stressed Arpat Ozgul, professor of population ecology at the Department of Evolutionary Biology and Environmental Studies at the University of Zurich, and co-author of the study.
A novel framework to manage wolves and people The socio-ecological map created by Dominik Behr and his co-authors appears to accurately represent the wolf situation in Switzerland of the past years, including identifications of areas of high, moderate or limited conflict. “By capturing areas characterized by both favourable environmental conditions and a positive acceptance towards the wolf, our approach is a valuable tool to identify overall socio-ecological suitable areas for the wolf. Under given conditions, those regions are good candidates for the successful short to medium-term expansion of the wolf. Additionally, this approach allows to identify key regions where proactive and targeted socio-ecological management plans and a constructive dialog among different stakeholders are needed” said Dr. Gabriele Cozzi, who coordinated the study.
Special thanks go to the 3142 people that returned the completed questionnaire – this study would not have been possible without their contribution.
Behr DM, Ozgul A, Cozzi G (2017) Combining human attitude and habitat suitability: a unified socio-ecological suitability model for the wolf in Switzerland.Journal of Applied Ecology ➤
A rare opportunity for a group & affiliates photo. Taken during the apero following my inaugural talk, the reason why I am dressed like a bible salesman.
Our Lab is proud to announce Arpat’s “Antrittsvorlesung” (inaugural lecture), which will be held Monday, 11 November 2013 at 5 pm at the University of Zurich.
I thought I post it on our blog to put some extra pressure on Arpat… 😉
Do not miss that out… apparently the apèro afterwards is really nice! Oh, yeah and of course the lecture will be absolutely amazing
The last week of August could not have been more hectic and inspiring for some of the people of our lab. The first Animal Movement Ecology Summer School held at the University of Zurich as part of the PhD Program in Ecology of the Life Science Zurich Graduate School has been a great success. We managed to bring together 30 highly dedicated and motivated participants from UZH/ETHZ and from overseas as well as seven top lecturers for what has been an intense and dynamic week.
Participants had the opportunity to alternate high-quality lectures – covering a wide range of topics, such as remote sensing, home-range and movement analysis, patch occupancy models, population dynamics – with some social activities, such has bbq and the long-sought-after jump in the Limmat, the local river. The scope of such activities was to quickly create a cohesive group and promote interactions among the participants and with the lecturers to establish future collaborations. A great success has been the day organised at the Tierpark Goldau, where we had the possibility to follow lectures in a natural and inspiring environment.
Participants interacting during one exercise in the suggestive class room at the Tierpark Goldau
We, organizers, received very positive feedbacks from all participants, which is very encouraging, and we are therefore keen to offer a similar, and even more exciting, course during the summer 2014! Stay tuned on this blog if you do not want to miss-out and want to…keep moving forward!
The organisers, Stephanie Jenouvrier, Thomas Reed and Marcel Visser, brought together a select group of researchers working at the interface of ecology and evolution, from both theoretical and empirical backgrounds, to brainstorm on our current understanding of eco-evolutionary dynamics. Unlike most other workshops, this one had quite an interesting format. There were only a few plenary talks, and most of the time participants held smaller break-out sessions on their own research area. Although there were no final road-maps or even a clear definition of eco-evolutionary semantics, these break-out sessions, I think, worked very well for tossing around ideas and discussing more specialised topics among those with shared interests. For our part, we received great input on our two projects.
