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A major goal in biodiversity conservation is to predict responses of biological populations to environmental change. To achieve this goal, we must identify early warning signals of the demographic changes that underlie sudden population declines or explosions. Some studies have achieved phenomenological prediction of sudden changes, but recent advances that link trait-based information with demography hint that a mechanistic understanding is within reach. We are developing a predictive framework by investigating how wildlife populations respond demographically, ecologically and evolutionarily to environmental change, and identifying the demographic and phenotypic statistics that can be used as early warning signals of population change. This project will exploit nine unique mammalian systems to identify early warning signals of population change and test these signals on two experimental systems. The results will hopefully provide much-needed predictive insight into how wildlife populations respond to rapid environmental change.
