Predicting population dynamics accurately requires considering environmental and demographic aspects, such as the spatiotemporal pattern of environmental change, reaction norms of life-history rates to this change, covariation among life-history rates, and density feedback on these rates. Studies on spatially structured populations (metapopulations) usually ignore this complexity.
In this project, we build a metapopulation model that can accommodate the four demographic aspects. By simulating different life-history strategies and alternately excluding aspects from the model, we generate hypotheses on how each aspect affects population projections under environmental change. Then, we test the hypotheses on data from natural and experimental populations.
The current state of knowledge on environment–demography relationships (green arrows), expanded by four demographic aspects (red boxes).
In collaboration with:
Maria Paniw (Doñana Biological Station, Spanish Council for Scientific Research)